Market Outlook: 3Q18
Left to themselves, the US economy and stock market are healthy and gaining strength. But they’re not being left to themselves, as Trump bulls his way into the china ...
Market Outlook: 2Q18
The US stock market this year has been a tug-of-war between improving corporate earnings and investors’ decision to pay less for them. So far, the contest is a draw. By ...
Market Outlook: 1Q18
By most economic measures, things are about as good as they get—without spurring inflation. This is textbook behavior in the late stages of an economic expansion when inflation poses ...
Market Outlook 4Q17
With US wage inflation having paused and leading indicators turning back up, it appears the Goldilocks economy and the bull market in stocks may have further to go. Mixed Signals ...
Market Outlook: 3Q17
While the headlines of a rising market tell us the economy is improving, the internal make-up of the market—what’s working and what’s not—tells us the economy ...
Market Outlook: 2Q17
While falling rates and oil prices in 2015 created a tailwind for the economy in 2016, rising rates and oil prices in 2016 will create a headwind for the economy in 2017. This will ...
Market Outlook: 1Q17
We said for most of last year that we saw dark clouds gathering in 2017. With the election now behind us, we continue to expect 2017 to be a difficult year for ...
Market Outlook: 4Q16
We see the odds of a US recession in 2017 rising and with them the odds of a difficult stock market. So, we’re moving our portfolios’ equity exposure from a ...
Market Outlook: 3Q16
Supportive global interest rates, an improving US economy that boosts export activity around the globe, and reduced risk of foreign financial crisis should provide a tailwind to US stocks. ...
Let’s Give Future Generations a Speculometer
Published in The Business (London), June 2003 I RECENTLY participated in a roundtable at the OECD in Paris designed to gauge progress toward restoring confidence in financial markets. As the earnest ...
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