Market Outlook: 1Q19
In the fourth quarter of last year, investors, in effect, priced the stock market as if there would be a recession in the US in 2019. We think this was an ...
Market Outlook: 4Q18
We find ourselves in the unusual situation where the Fed is tapping the brakes with monetary policy while Congress is stepping on the gas with fiscal policy. It appears that ...
Market Outlook: 3Q18
Left to themselves, the US economy and stock market are healthy and gaining strength. But they’re not being left to themselves, as Trump bulls his way into the china ...
Market Outlook: 2Q18
The US stock market this year has been a tug-of-war between improving corporate earnings and investors’ decision to pay less for them. So far, the contest is a draw. By ...
Market Outlook: 1Q18
By most economic measures, things are about as good as they get—without spurring inflation. This is textbook behavior in the late stages of an economic expansion when inflation poses ...
Market Outlook 4Q17
With US wage inflation having paused and leading indicators turning back up, it appears the Goldilocks economy and the bull market in stocks may have further to go. Mixed Signals ...
Market Outlook: 3Q17
While the headlines of a rising market tell us the economy is improving, the internal make-up of the market—what’s working and what’s not—tells us the economy ...
Market Outlook: 2Q17
While falling rates and oil prices in 2015 created a tailwind for the economy in 2016, rising rates and oil prices in 2016 will create a headwind for the economy in 2017. This will ...
Market Outlook: 1Q17
We said for most of last year that we saw dark clouds gathering in 2017. With the election now behind us, we continue to expect 2017 to be a difficult year for ...
Market Outlook: 4Q16
We see the odds of a US recession in 2017 rising and with them the odds of a difficult stock market. So, we’re moving our portfolios’ equity exposure from a ...
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