Market Outlook: 2Q20
One thing we’re sure of: the stock markets will heal before the economy.They always do. Because they’re pricing what the economy will looklike six months down the ...
Market Outlook: 1Q20
Market action in both stocks and bonds during the fourth quarter suggests investors have shifted from pessimism to optimism about the global economy—including the US. Tug of War While ...
Market Outlook: 4Q19
Investors have been exposed to stock market risk for a year but have precious little to show for it, other than a tremendous amount of volatility. Investors continue to face ...
Market Outlook: 3Q19
The US should avoid economic recession in the coming year, but the odds of an earnings recession—where US corporate profit growth turns negative while overall economic growth does not—...
Market Outlook: 2Q19
The US should avoid economic recession in the coming year, but the odds of an earnings recession—where US corporate profit growth turns negative while overall economic growth does not—...
Market Outlook: 1Q19
In the fourth quarter of last year, investors, in effect, priced the stock market as if there would be a recession in the US in 2019. We think this was an ...
Market Outlook: 4Q18
We find ourselves in the unusual situation where the Fed is tapping the brakes with monetary policy while Congress is stepping on the gas with fiscal policy. It appears that ...
Market Outlook: 3Q18
Left to themselves, the US economy and stock market are healthy and gaining strength. But they’re not being left to themselves, as Trump bulls his way into the china ...
Market Outlook: 2Q18
The US stock market this year has been a tug-of-war between improving corporate earnings and investors’ decision to pay less for them. So far, the contest is a draw. By ...
Market Outlook: 1Q18
By most economic measures, things are about as good as they get—without spurring inflation. This is textbook behavior in the late stages of an economic expansion when inflation poses ...
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